Bitcoin: Breaking Alts
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we’re going to talk about Bitcoin breaking alts if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out the sale on into the cryptographers premium uh into the
Cryptiverse.com we of course do have several different tiers available links in the description below make sure you check it out let’s go ahead and jump in given the title breaking alts I figured it would only be necessary to color code the dominance candles blue so we have
Dark blue and light blue for the Bitcoin dominance Candles now the reason we’re calling this breaking alts is because I think Bitcoin is in the process of breaking the altcoin market at least temporarily I do think the altcoin market will come back but I also think this is a a fairly necessary component
Of the market cycle it is played out in the past and I think it’s about to play out once again now the idea here is if we if we rewind the clock back one of the things we said back in you know February of 2022 is in
A you know in the video the the navigating the bear Market Video we said all to risky and I said back then that you know the altcoin market is is too risky I said if you want to if you want to buy an altcoin it’s probably better
To take a cold shower and reconsider and and so on and so forth right the altcoin market is likely going to go down now with that in mind a lot of people might look at that and say well you know had I sat out of the altcoin market they
Wouldn’t have seen all these rallies right all the rallies that that the altcoin market saw of you know 40 50 Etc or you know here’s another 40 rally by the altcoin market this one right here is another 40 rally by the altcoin market or so so you know missed out on
Some of these rallies and the point is is it doesn’t really matter because they’ve all most of them have been bleeding on their Bitcoin pairs now there have been a few that outperformed but most of them have been bleeding on their Bitcoin pairs now again though
This is financial I just want to try to convey my opinion here one of the things to consider with regards to the altcoin market is that it has continued to bleed back to bitcoin for a long time now the Bitcoin dominance videos that I do can
Often be met with criticism some of it I I think is is warranted but using the Bitcoin dominance including stable coins as justification for the idea that most of the altcoin market has not been bleeding back to bitcoin is is just simply not true right it has been going
On if you look at the dominance excluding Stables so again excluding the stablecoin market it’s actually been putting in higher lows since May of 2021 and really been putting in higher lows since January of 2018. also been putting in lower Highs but again since May of
2021 which is when I really first became bullish on the dominance you can see that excluding Stables it has in fact been putting in higher lows and if you take a moving average of this you can see that it’s been building out a fairly bit large base for what I think is going
To be a continued and explosive move Higher by the dominance of Bitcoin now what I want to do is I want to compare the dominance rally to the context of the past all right now is there anything special about this Bitcoin dominance rally not yet but I think we will I think it
Will break out admittedly I thought it was going to break out in June of 2022. I thought that was the breakout okay so it’s possible that I think it again and it doesn’t happen but I want to draw your attention to one very specific thing if you look at the dominance of Bitcoin
Back in 2018 what you’ll notice is that it rallied from around that 39 level Okay so we’ve seen a very similar move by Bitcoin dominance here right it moved from this 39 level all the way up to around 48 percent now it’s moving from that level again 39
Or so and we find ourselves approaching that 48 threshold now one of the things to consider is that the dominance here when it rallied from 39 percent it went all the way up to 62 percent now oftentimes when you think about the Bitcoin dominance you might assume that
If the dominance is going up you know Bitcoin USD is only going in one direction for the duration of that move higher in the Bitcoin dominance this is often a common assumption although history shows us that’s not necessarily a valid assumption if you were to Overlay Bitcoin USD on this chart
Let’s switch this over to a logarithmic scale what you’ll notice here and let me change this to a different color so it shows up a little bit better if you draw a line through this rally by bitcoinusd when it rallied from 6K all the way up to around 8K you’ll notice
That during that rally the Bitcoin dominance was going up but also during that rally the big or at the end of the rally the dominance continued to go up even after Bitcoin came back down to a slightly higher low now let’s let’s write this out for a
Minute here so what do you notice so in 2018 Bitcoin USD was going up and while Bitcoin USD was going up the dominance rallied from all the way down here you know at 39 to 40 percent or so um all the way up to and I mean at part
Of that it did go down here initially but it went up and it continued to go up all the way to about the time the dominance hit around 50 percent so Bitcoin USD let’s say 39 dominance up to around 50 percent dominance during that move okay then Bitcoin USD came down
And then put in a lower high and during that move right so Bitcoin USD went down the dominance went from 50 percent to 62 percent so the first half of the move occurred when Bitcoin USD was in this crazy rally the second half occurred when Bitcoin came back down to earth
But what’s the important distinction distinction in this rally by the dominance it took out the prior High okay so the rally by Bitcoin USD allowed for the dominance to take out the prior High the point of that is that it gets all coins off of their Bitcoin support
Levels and so that when Bitcoin USD corrects the altcoin market has nowhere to hide because they’ve fallen off of their Bitcoin support levels and we’re going to go through those through a lot of those later on in the video but you can see that the dominance made
It to a level higher than where it was at the prior top and so when Bitcoin corrected all the altcoins were already shaken off their Bitcoin Pairs and therefore they continue to go down on their Bitcoin Pairs and Bitcoin USD while Bitcoin USD went down what do you
Notice this time the highest rally that the dominance had was back over here and the dominance did not make it there right it came very close but it did not quite make it there and it also occurred when Bitcoin USD was going down now Bitcoin USD is going up
And the dominance is trying to get to this level now what is that magical Line in the Sand it’s around a dominance of 49 so what I think you need to see I think you need to see or what I’d like to see is I’d like to see Bitcoin
Dominance break the prior high of around 49 so if it can get to that 49 to 50 level then you could argue that it’s broken the altcoin market okay and that means if Bitcoin comes back down then the altcoin market might not Rally now why is that important there’s this common assumption that
After Bitcoin USD goes parabolic that the altcoin market will okay a lot of people assume that and why why shouldn’t they they saw it happen in 2021 they saw it happen in 2017 but what you might not be aware of is that there was a rally by
Bitcoin USD in 2018 and there was a rally over here in 2019 and after both rallies when the dominant when Bitcoin USD came back down the dominance continued higher after both rallies the dominance continued higher okay so then the argument of course is well if the dominance can go higher when the
USD when Bitcoin USD comes down then that means the all coins are going to likely bleed quite a bit on their USD pairs because what we’ve seen time and time again over the last several months is that Bitcoin has just been outperforming the altcoin market as a
Whole now there are always a few altcoins that outperform I’m not trying to take anything away from that I don’t know which ones there’s going to be and I’m not going to pretend like I know so it’s better for me to just you know make my crypto portfolio
Um more focused on bitcoin than the altcoin market especially at phases like this so some people say well you know how high can Bitcoin USD go well you shouldn’t really ask me like I don’t know how high it’s going to go here in the short term but what I would
Say is that I hope it gets to a level soon within the next week or two so that it can get above the prior level of 49 which is only a couple of percent higher really than where it is right now so if the dominance can break above 49 then I
Think you could argue that Bitcoin has now broken the altcoin market and that means that if Bitcoin USD comes back down and people think okay well the Bitcoin rally is over therefore it’s going to be time to sort of flow back into alts that could be a a
Poor decision if history is an indication if this is the phase of breaking the altcoin market now again I could be wrong um I want to reiterate that and this is not Financial advice but I just want try to people to understand that there is a risk that just because Bitcoin has gone
Parabolic recently like it has in um in in Prior instances even in 2019 You could argue that you know after Bitcoin USD was done rallying right here the dominant still continued higher into September but Bitcoin USD topped in June and July kind of like a double top sort of thing so
You have to I think you have to at least consider that risk as we continue as we continue forward is that if the dominance can go above that 49 then when Bitcoin USD comes back down I think you could argue that the dominance could continue higher and lead to the
Continuation of the altcoin Reckoning all right we’ve talked about this quite a bit now how high could Bitcoin go um I mean right now it’s a 27k if you think about it last week Bitcoin dominance opened up the week or this week 43.63 percent now it’s at 46.76 percent so it’s moved
Up three percent in a week if it were to move up two and a half percent it would take out this prior High okay so it doesn’t even need to repeat what it did last week to the same level like it just needs to
Do a you know a fraction of it and it could take out the prior high so my hope is that wherever it goes it’s enough to take out that level here so that if it rallies on up here gets above it then when Bitcoin USD corrects you see the dominance continue to go
Higher this is the argument that I’m trying to sort of make clear okay now again you could say well why compare it to 2018 you know I mean why not compare it to 2019. cyclically it might make more sense to compare to 2019 but even in that case again the dominance continued
Higher even after Bitcoin started to correct now it didn’t continue it didn’t continue to go higher forever but it was a couple more months so I think that’s sort of the the two main things you can look at are sort of this move here and this move here this move here because
It’s sort of like a cyclically more comparable time this move here because that’s where the dominance has rallied from so you know the dominance rallied from that 40 you know 39 level very similar as to this phase rather than this phase because by this phase the dominance was already at 52 percent right
Now the Counterpoint to that of course is that well if you exclude stable coins the um the dominance right now is is just below 52 but again this is also after a fairly impressive Rally from 45 just a few weeks ago so it’s not like you know it’s not like that it’s not
Like this move is starting um at that level but this is the point is that the altcoin market can bleed against Bitcoin for far longer than most people expect okay so let’s suppose you’re in you know I think most people are gonna be in one of two camps right
You’re in the camp that Bitcoin bottom is in or in the camp that it’s not in right you’re right you’re only one of those two camps or I guess you’re in the camp that you don’t care right some people don’t really care um but let’s suppose you’re in the camp
That the bottom is in okay if you’re in that camp that doesn’t necessarily and I’m going to switch this back to some uh candles that maybe are going to be a little bit more aesthetically pleasing for people to look at for a long period of time but
If you’re in the camp here that the you know that the dominance or sorry if you’re if you’re in the camp that the the the low is in so what okay why do I say that well the lobe is in back in um for for Bitcoin in December 2018 it
Didn’t stop some all coins from going lower you know it didn’t stop Ada from going lower lower it didn’t stop xrp another coin from going lower it didn’t stop Dogecoin from going lower all the way out until 2020 and even putting in sort of a double bottom in
2019 then going lower in 2020 right so just because just because you might be in the camp that the bottom is in it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s in for the altcoin market okay so you have to consider that so what would that look like well I suppose that the more optimistic
Scenario would be that if this is sort of like a you know like a deviation to the downside maybe you sort of see like this deviation of The Upside for a while it stays around here and then comes back in puts in a higher low and then and
Then rallies on up right that would sort of be the more optimistic scenario and you might say well how is all the more optimistic scenario this is more what I would consider realistic I mean you know even in 2015 you had you had two sort of false breakouts in 2019 we ended up
Coming back into a slightly higher low so I don’t see why we should assume that this is this time is going to be any different in that regard I know there are some theories out there popular you know going around that we’re going to have hyperinflation and and and this
Sort of stuff and that it’s going to lead to the rapid price movement of Bitcoin USD to the upside but I think it’s more what’s more likely than rapid than hyperinflation would actually be rapid disinflation via a recession I think that’s more likely scenario based on a lot of the forward indicators
That you can look at with regards to the macro where you know where we sit with the macro side of things so I think that that part’s not going to be very much different in that regard and if you’re in the camp that the bottom is not in
Then the altcoin market still makes even less sense okay it makes even less sense now if you remember back in June of of 2022 there were a lot of people that thought that was the bottom and I was clear I said I don’t think it’s the
Bottom you know they thought it was the bottom back in in Q3 of 2018 as well and and they were wrong and the reason why I know they were wrong is because I was one of them back over here thinking this was the bottom and it wasn’t the bottom
And and we ended up falling out so when we were putting we were sort of putting in these same higher lows over here I said look guys I don’t think this is the bottom because it’s likely just going to play out the same way and it did to some degree but
It didn’t capitulate nearly as much so I’m in the camp that it could be the bottom and I said that back over here that the next slope could be the bottom but the reality of the situation is that given the likelihood of recession we still have to consider the possibility
Of a lower low right we have to consider those a possibility because of a potential recession now the reason there could be a potential recession is because of the aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and there are certainly warning signs there okay if you go take a look
At the at the macroverse let me go take a look at at you know the yield curve you’ll notice that when it’s inverted like this like it was before the you know the recession back in the financial crisis and before the.com recession it looks pretty similar to how it does
Today if you look at treasury yield spreads the two-year the three month of the tenure are deeply inverted the two-year and the tenure are deeply inverted normally this precedes a recession now a common mistake I’ve seen occur over the last year is that people say well you know we’re already in a
Recession because of of of all these different factors and I I think you have to consider that look normally when the yield curve is inverted we’re not in a recession it’s it’s after the uninversion of the yield curve that we go into a recession so I think a lot of
Recession calls have been have been somewhat premature but it doesn’t mean that one’s not coming and if one comes then that means liquidity is likely going to dry up even further and that could be ultimately what leads you to lower prices so I think when you look at
Bitcoin USD if you’re in the camp that Bitcoin USD is bottomed then all coins can still bleed and if you’re in the camp the Bitcoin USD is not bottomed then all coins can certainly bleed back to Bitcoin now how the altcoin Reckoning take place because we’ve been talking
About it for a while on any given day someone might look at an altcoin and say well it’s up today or or this all coins in an uptrend but most altcoins have continued to eventually push lower okay now let me draw your attention to a couple of of important details if you
Look at Bitcoin USD what you’ll notice is that it is already broken out of this downtrend line right it already broke out and it retested it and it’s and it’s popped back up now the total three the altcoin market so total three is everything besides Bitcoin and ethereum total three has not
Broken out which is interesting what does that show you it shows you that there’s a relative weakness in the altcoin market that is compared to bitcoin right a relative weakness here Bitcoin is broken out but the altcoin market has not so what happens if Bitcoin breaks down before total three breaks out what
Happens if that occurs well the same thing that happened over here right if you connect the dots same thing right what did we have happen over here you had total three sort of Bounce here off of it off of it again off of it here
We we had sort of a false breakout and then a final plunge this move down by total three from the top was 60 over 60 percent 61 percent to the downside quite an impressive move the downside now what does that look like over here well the uh the the top part of this
Channel right here is just over 400 billion so you could say like 410 billion now remember this one over here did have sort of like a false breakout so perhaps it could go slightly above 410 maybe it goes to 420 billion or 430 billion but the point is look what happens if Bitcoin
Breaks down here sorry what happens if Bitcoin breaks down here before total three has broken out well it means that there’s nowhere to hide for the altcoin market okay um you know it can it you know it can easily come back in it doesn’t have this
Level to hold support on if if it can’t even break out of it to begin with and take a look at total two which includes ethereum okay so slightly different but this one includes ethereum what do you notice Allah a high a lower high this was the
Lower high lower high is this not is this going to be just to lower high or will it break out if if Bitcoin usd’s rally Falls before it breaks out then this could easily come back in down here and then break to the downside okay so
This is the risk that I think you have to consider but Bitcoin you know could come back in and has potentially the luxury of bouncing off this trend line because it’s already broken out of it which the altcoin market has arguably not so the altcoin market is showing
Relative weakness all right now one thing I want to cover really quick while I’m thinking about it is this dominance rally now ideally I would like to see the dominance take out 49 this week that would be ideal okay and it could do it if we see anything close to what we
Saw this week but we should also be aware that this has sort of been like some steps so the Bitcoin dominance climbs and then it consolidates and then it climbs and then it consolidates so is it client is it going to consolidate again before making
A final move to break through it or will it just go ahead and break through it now now one thing to consider here if it consolidates then one way to visualize a potential consolidation of the Bitcoin dominance is the altcoin market still bleeding back to bitcoin but perhaps ethereum shows some renewed
Strength rollout now my base case for ethereum Bitcoin is that it’s going to break down so this is my base case is that a theory of Bitcoin valuation is going to break down that’s my opinion it could be wrong with that said you can also see that it hasn’t really been
Broken off its support like some of the all coins that we’re going to look at so Until It Breaks it might be premature to celebrate you know Bitcoin breaking eth off its support in fact it was back in in March of 2022 that ether Bitcoin rallied off
Of this level back up to around 0.0767 before it finally plunged now we do know that we have the Shanghai hard Fort coming up so I I suppose there could be some hype around that and if that’s the case it could lead to the further consolidation of of Bitcoin dominance
For you know for a few more weeks but if that doesn’t transpire and Bitcoin USD just continues you know continues moving higher here in the short term then it could just kick ether off its Bitcoin off its Bitcoin pair um the support level anyways and then there’s just simply nowhere to hide so
The point is that if ether Bitcoin falls off of this prior support level you know within the next few weeks whether it’s you know whether it’s next week or whether it happens in say may like it did in 2022 the point is that whenever Bitcoin USD comes back down whether it’s
You know in a couple months or whether it’s next week that ether Bitcoin simply has has nowhere to hide okay so that’s the argument whether it breaks down now or if it comes back up and then breaks down is that either Bitcoin has nowhere to hide and that’s the way when Bitcoin
Dominance sort of breaks if it can break above 49 then that’s the way that you can see the dominance continue higher even after Bitcoin USD comes back down so it comes back down to earth the Bitcoin dominance could continue much higher as the altcoin market bleeds back
To Bitcoin now on any given day the altcoin market doesn’t have to bleed back to bitcoin and and if you if you follow some of the all coins you’ll see that ADA Bitcoin has this ability to sort of pop back up for you know a few
Weeks to get you excited but it only it just eventually leads to new lows okay now one of the things that you’ll notice is that ADA Bitcoin has already fallen off its support level okay so bitcoin’s pump already has broken the Ada Bitcoin support level right that’s why we’re calling it
Breaking alts it’s broken the support so whenever Bitcoin USD goes back down the argument is that ADA Bitcoin has nowhere to hide the prior support level of 1500 satoshi’s is no longer support and it’s just in free-fall free fall not that dissimilar from what happened in 2019.
Now if you want to compare the dominance rally to 2019 as opposed to 2018 take a look if you add overlay Bitcoin USD what you’ll notice by overlaying Bitcoin USD here is that the rally by Bitcoin ended on sort of the the second or third breakdown candle
Right so if we zoom in here Bitcoin USD topped here in you know that first week over here of July or so then it had sort of a double top in August but what you’ll notice is that ADA Bitcoin continued going down so it was the third breakdown candle arguably so
This for and what I mean by that is just large devaluations in the short term on its Ada Bitcoin pair so essentially doing nothing for a while and then you know 13 down and then 14 15 down and then this was about an eight percent drop so it was that third week
So if that were to occur it would mean if this is the first one then it would mean in like the next couple of weeks or so right that’s what it would ultimately mean now if this plays out like it did last cycle then Ada Bitcoin coming back into its
Prior support level of four to five hundred satoshi’s could still represent about a 68 drop maybe you make the case that it’s in a slight uptrend and it goes to 800 SATs but it’s hard to imagine that it can’t you know it can’t just eventually fall back down to these prior support levels
Dot Bitcoin is a very similar thing right even coming back down to this level still another 25 moves the downside Solana Bitcoin continues to push lower we’ve seen prior you know prior support become resistance a couple of times already and it’s one of those things where you know people say
Oftentimes that well you know the Bitcoin dominance hasn’t really been going up for a long time because again you look at it including stable coins and it put in the new low as recently as September of 2022 but it sort of completely ignores the fact that this metric includes the stable coin market
And for the most part most of these altcoins have been devalued on their Bitcoin pairs Ada Bitcoin dot Bitcoin link Bitcoin um has been getting you know significantly devalued here on its Bitcoin pair uni Bitcoin is is Falling Again Litecoin Bitcoin has been falling um you know maker Bitcoin is down 40 in
Five days and even even some of the ones that have been holding up relatively well for a while like BNB Bitcoin is dropping quickly um Ave Bitcoin is dropping and so on and so forth right even Matic Bitcoin which was holding for a while is down 15 this week
Avax Bitcoin is potentially breaking below support as well so you have to consider that a lot of these all coins are are just simply you know they’re simply breaking down now the argument is well if you had decided to you know DCA a certain cryptocurrency again what did
I say back over here in February 2022 right I said cash is King altarisky now early this year we said that there’s going to be some phases this year where where you know Bitcoin can outperform right where it’s not going to be nearly as obvious because that’s what you
Normally see in a recovery year and we we even showed sort of this average year-to-date Roi so if you look at the 2015 and 2019 Roi of Bitcoin as a function of time you get you know and you take the average of it you get something that looks like this and it
Sort of shows that the the downside potential is is negative 25 from the yearly open which would be down to around 12 000 Bitcoin and the move to the upside could be as much as 2.1 x from the yearly open which would be just north of thirty thousand dollars again
I’m not saying it has to go to either of those extremes I’m just saying you know the 20 the average of the of the 2014 and 2018 bear Market did a pretty good job of of sort of encapsulating um what happened in 2022 so and the
Ranges of 2022 so why not assume that you could see something very similar in 2023 so when you think about all that it has to make you wonder well if the altcoin market is bleeding um you know at least when I consider it I’m like why would I put money in the
Altcoin market if I think the dominance is going to go up either way remember a lot of people think that the dominance only goes up when Bitcoin USD goes up or they think it only goes up when Bitcoin USD goes down but the history shows us that the Bitcoin dominance can go up
Whether Bitcoin USD is going up or down and there’s this common misconception that just because Bitcoin goes parabolic does not always mean that all coins will go parabolic while they did in 2017 and 2021 there’s a time in 2018 where they didn’t there was a time in 2019 where
They did it so it might be a false assumption it doesn’t mean that all coins can’t slowly be lifted higher on their USD pairs which is again Bitcoin can you know sort of raise the level on on all coins overall as you’ve seen occur with say like
Ethereum and some of the other altcoins which I don’t really consider ethanol but some of these all coins have been slowly moving higher on their USD pairs it doesn’t mean that they’re not bleeding back to bitcoin you know litecoin’s a good example of a coin that
Can often do well in its having year and you might say well look at this I mean it was a very similar move and I even talked about this some um before or in 2019 it sort of rallied up to 100 and then came back to 60 did
The same thing over here and is is it going to rally on up to higher levels I don’t really know but historically you’ll see Litecoin you know do better during its having years with respect to the altcoin market but the point is over the macro scale if you’re a more macro
Investor and you take a look at the Litecoin Bitcoin valuation the point is who cares right like you know so what if it occasionally has rallies against Bitcoin the reality of this situation is that it’s just simply in a macro downtrend against Bitcoin and from 2013 it’s down 94
You know I mean even even from um you know even if you take it back to say 2018 right like the the bot the Bitcoin USD bottom in 2018. Litecoin Bitcoin is down 57 okay so the point is who cares right like Litecoin USD can can certainly do well at certain phases
And and there are certain people of course that want to take advantage of these these moves and I’m not I’m not saying they shouldn’t but the point is Litecoin rallied you know fifteen hundred percent last cycle but for every dollar you put into Litecoin you didn’t put it into ethereum
Right or you didn’t put it into Bitcoin and for reference to take a look to see what ethereum did last cycle it moved up from this from this bottom over here in March it moved up 5200 percent right you know I spent the last year arguing that ethereum needs to
Ultimately come back in to its lower logarithmic regression trend line down here um and of course so far we have alluded that but the reality is that you know I was bullish on ethereum before a five thousand percent move and now everyone gets up in arms when it just pumps back
Up to this you know when it’s basically just stuck in this range for basically the last year so yes I can understand why why it might be frustrating but you know there’s there’s a big difference between just sort of being in a range and a 5 000 move to the upside so the
Point when considering the altcoin market especially at phases like we’re in right now is that they’re likely just going to continue to be devalued on their Bitcoin pairs one of the ways to to sort of visualize this in a more mathematically sound approach is to perhaps go look at something again I’ve
Made videos on this before but modern portfolio theory if you look at things like the sharp ratio and sortino ratio with Bitcoin and eth you can see that it’s about 65 Bitcoin and 35 each for its maximizers 14 ratio which again does not punish positive volatility uh
For the sharper issue which does it’s 67 Bitcoin 33 but look what happens if you add a couple of altcoins like xrp and Litecoin What percentages maximize your risk adjust returns then it’s really low percentage of the altcoins really low percentages why because yes they can give you good
Returns sometimes but in Bear markets they can get absolutely crushed and so maximizing your risk adjusted returns would still call for a relatively low percentages in the altcoin market especially in phases like we’re in right now because they can just get simply devalued on their Bitcoin pairs take a
Look at at Ada Bitcoin closer here from the peak it’s down to 80 percent so Ada Bitcoin is down eighty percent but it’s down against an asset that also went down 77 that’s how bad Ada has gotten wrecked think about Solana right Solana has gone down against Bitcoin from the peak 82 percent
But Bitcoin went down itself 77 so Solana went down 83 or so 82 83 against an asset that also went down 77 that’s how bad the altcoin market can get wrecked during the altcoin Reckoning now anytime we make these videos inevitably we eventually get a pump right like we
Had over here like we had over here and like we had over here but it doesn’t mean the eventual resolution was not to the downside and this is how the altcoin Reckoning gets you it it it it pumps up the all coin Market pumps up it sucks in
Liquidity it traps people and then it goes lower and it just goes on and on and on so that’s I think what you have to you know to be on the lookout for there’s another indicator that I want to talk about very briefly and this is the um the if you look at
The stable coin Supply ratio if you look at the the Bollinger Bands you can see that we’ve sort of we’ve been at the top of it for a while there’s been a couple other times in recent history where this occurred one of them was back over here
But you can see once it spends some time up here it means we’re getting into sort of like a a um a final distribution phase before coming back in for a while look at it back over here in 2019. it was up in this region and It ultimately came back
In now that doesn’t mean it can’t push higher in the short term if you look at the current Supply stable coin Supply ratio oscillator which again gives you an idea of the it quantifies its motivations to quantify the extent of stable coin buying power and it’s estimate of its potential move the price
Of Bitcoin it’s at the same level it was in 2019 at 2019’s stable coin Supply ratio oscillator Peak did that correspond to bitcoin USD Peak no Bitcoin USD had one more rally left in it before it entered into a nine month downtrend um did it Mark the peak over here in
2021 no it had one more rally app did it and then it entered into a several month downtrend before having a double Peak and then going much lower when I look at this it’s it is looking a little bit different than it did over here because you can see it kind of
Popped up for a little bit and rather than you know here it popped up and then just turned it down here it it you know just kind of came up to this level and turned it on this one’s actually putting in a higher high so I don’t know if that
Means that Bitcoin USD is going to get one more you know one more push higher or not but if it does then ideally if it does we would see the Bitcoin dominance breakthrough 49 so to get to closer to that 50 level and if it does then I
Think what’s happened is it’s broken the altcoin market some many of them have already fallen Ada Bitcoins a lot of Bitcoins Fallen dot Bitcoin has fallen and so on and so forth what hasn’t fallen is ether Bitcoin right that one has not yet fallen and I I don’t know if
It’s going to get one more push-up or not I personally hope it doesn’t I hope it just comes down right now and and we sort of get into that final stage of the altcoin Reckoning now you might say well why why be so pessimistic about the altcoin market
Well I suppose it has something to do with getting burned so many times in it I even warn people back in Q3 of 2022 that you know people getting into the all clean Market are likely to get wrecked by the end of the year uh when you know when Bitcoin theoretically
Capitulates just because I’ve experienced it many times myself and and we can see that a lot about coins continue to push lower not only in November but also December as well um so that’s something I I think you have to you have to keep in mind is that
You know these all coins can continue lower in in either event um which is you know it’s sort of like a sobering reality to to consider but the point is if is if Bitcoin can push high enough quickly enough the assumption that all coins can rally can
Can somewhat be misplaced if if they’re frankly getting rejected by the same levels that Bitcoin was able to Rally through so I think when you go back to things like total three you have to consider you know can total three break out of this or is it just going to play
Out in the same way that it played out over here where you get sort of like a false breakout or maybe like a double top or something and then it just and then it sees a 60 capitulation to the downside is total two which includes
Ethereum is it going to break out or is it ultimately just going to come back in again the USD valuations can go slightly higher if Bitcoin USD can continue on up but if Bitcoin can if Bitcoin continues on up then that means the dominance is likely could very well likely break through
This threshold and ultimately break the altcoin market now one of the other reason I I would like to see this occur is not just because I’ve been you know I’ve seen all coins get wrecked in the past but it’s also because you know true generational opportunities don’t really present
Themselves that frequently and the hard part about generational opportunities in the altcoin market is just simply waiting for them it’s easy to want to you know sort of um get a head start and and everyone wants to get in as quickly as they can but it’s very difficult just being
Patient and waiting uh that’s the hardest part to it I mean if it were easy then generational opportunities would would um would come around much more frequently but that’s just simply not the case um so the other reason I want to see it is
Because if if you do have it if you do have some cash uh that you could deploy into the market under that scenario then it can actually leads to over you know to outsize gains in a in a theoretical future bull market under better economic conditions so I I think that’s
Ultimately the argument that I I’m trying to put forth okay so you know we’ve covered a lot but the ultimate idea here is that if Bitcoin dominance can break above 49 then the argument is that it’s breaking the altcoin market and that when Bitcoin USD comes back down the Bitcoin dominance can continue
To go higher leading to the further devaluation of all coins not only on their USD pairs but also on their Bitcoin Pairs and history shows us that a lot of these all coins still have likely much further to fall just to get back to being what a more optimistic
Scenario would just simply be something like an oscillator against Bitcoin which frankly for most all coins would be the optimistic scenario over for a longer period of time and and and and that is ultimately I think the the important consideration to make when considering the altcoin market is that many of them
Do just simply continue to bleed against Bitcoin over the macro scale so if you’re going to take the risk on the altcoin market it makes more sense to to get a better understanding or a better feeling that the altcoin market has not only bottomed on its USD evaluation but
Also on its on its Bitcoin valuation as well because for every dollar you put in an altcoin it’s a dollar you’re not putting in a Bitcoin which is more so stood the test of time and also it’s a dollar uh that you know you you’re you’re risking right you’re risking it
On something and and you want to make sure that whatever you’re risking it on is ultimately worth it right you want to make sure the theoretical reward is is worth the risk that you are um ultimately taking so the thing to look for is you know things like the stable
Coin Supply ratio does it start to come back down quickly if it does that could signal that Bitcoin USD is starting to starting to show uh signs of weakness and and in that case if Bitcoin dominance is broken through that level then it might mean that the altcoin market isn’t really going to
Continue rallying um I think you also have to look at you know you can take a look at the year-to-date Roi that we looked at with regards to sort of the average of 2015 and 2019 and related to 2023 you can take a look at the the Bitcoin dominance
Including stable coins to see if it can break Above This level you could also compare it to 2019 as well but in either case dominance went higher uh once Bitcoin corrected you can take a look at the Bitcoin dominance not including stable coins um which is is continuing to break
Higher and is currently sitting at 52 percent um which is you know a a pretty high level considering where we were just a few months ago so the altcoin Reckoning is something that takes place normally over you know 18 to 24 months and it’s already been going on for at least 15 to
16 months or so and it’s likely going to continue on I would argue for another four to six months potentially before it’s finally over and the Auckland Market is finally um capitulated out everything that it’s going to and then it can slowly start to Trend higher again but until then I do
Think people should be should be somewhat wary of the altcoin market and um and and tread very carefully okay I’m not going to say that they can’t go up on their USD pairs they can but on their Bitcoin pairs you are likely going to continue to see them bleed uh for for
Several months to come and that’s ultimately the point the last thing I will remind people of is with regards to bitcoin USD one of the things I’ve mentioned many many times and it’s one of the things I talk about uh quite frequently on on the premium side again
Into the crypto first.com is that you have these sort of these risk levels for Bitcoin on the whole idea is you just sort of DCA into into Bitcoin at low risk levels and DCA out at high risk levels it’s not about timing the bottom exactly it’s just about
Getting into the market slowly getting out of the market slowly it has nothing to do with timing the bottom because no one is going to identically time the bottom no one’s going to identically time the top where DCA is not nearly as as attractive is is for the altcoin
Market and that’s why I said more than a year ago that alts are too risky right because a lot of them the reality is a lot of them will not ever see a new all-time high again okay just because you DCA in an altcoin and get your cost
Basis down and down and down doesn’t mean it’s ever going to go see a new all-time high you think back to last cycle there are plenty of coins that did not go to new highs from where they were back in 2017 just like there were in
2017 coins that made highs in 2013 that were not repeated so the idea that every single coin that you’re dcing into is going to see a new all-time high is is likely not true one of the reasons for that is when liquidity dries up when you get into bear markets and recessions a
Lot of teams just throw in the towel they don’t care about it anymore and we’ll move on to something else and and that’s just when you don’t really want to risk your own money on the altcoin market um but to see which ones can actually stick around if you if you see certain
Altcoins that are actually providing real world utility which is arguably going to be a more important part of the world we’re moving into with higher interest rates then I think you could make the case that that altcoin could see a new all-time high and there were several coins that did see new all-time
Highs last cycle and we talked about them on the channel in fact but a lot of all coins won’t see new all-time highs and that’s that’s the reason why Bitcoin uh heavy portfolios can tend to perform much better during this phase because at the end of the day if you are just heavy
Bitcoin and your crypto portfolio has heavy has been heavy Bitcoin for the last year even throughout the entire bear Market you reserve the right to potentially convert those to to altcoins when you want and and get much better valuations because most of these all coins are down 80 85 90 against Bitcoin
So you can get a lot of the altcoins just with the Bitcoin that you had right that’s that’s what you have to consider navigating the cryptiverse is much better done by valuing all coins on their Bitcoin pairs not their USD pairs it’s much better done on their Bitcoin
Pairs and maybe they’re ether pairs but definitely on their their Bitcoin Pairs and and once we you know once you you get to that point of thinking about these things a lot of these coins I don’t know what their USD valuations are just kind of look at their Bitcoin valuations once you once
You get to seeing you know sort of how they they’re valued on their Bitcoin pairs then I think things like the dominance of Bitcoin make a lot more sense to con like to to sort of focus on right I think it it brings into into the light why the dominance is so important
And my opinion is that understanding the Bitcoin dominance is truly the secret the key to unlocking the secret of the cryptoverse and when you can figure out like okay when you’re down here it makes more sense to be Bitcoin heavy in in sort of anticipation of the dominance
Going higher and when you’re up here it makes sense to be more you know to be to be at least more exposed to the altcoin market I would still argue heavier in Bitcoin just because you don’t know which all coins are going to take off but maybe heavier in all coins than you
Would be over here because eventually the dominance is likely going to break back down so that is the ultimate uh message that I’m trying to sort of convey through these types of videos where I just hammer on and on and on about the Bitcoin dominance is that I
Truly do think it is the secret to unlocking this you know the the crypto verse um or it’s the key to unlocking the secret of the cryptiverse and and then figuring out when does it make sense to be heavy in the altcoin market and when
Is it not and and given the idea of the devaluation of all coins that we’re seeing on their Bitcoin pairs I still think that all coins are are simply too soon at this phase I think many of them will continue lower on their USD Pairs and I think the fact that Bitcoin USD
Has broken out and the altcoin market has not tells you tells you quite a bit as to the relative weakness of of the altcoin market thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe again we do have into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptiverse.com I’ll see you
Guys next time and we have the sale going on right now as well so make sure you check that out we have several different tiers available I’ll see you guys next time bye
Can #Bitcoin break #ALTs off of their #Bitcoin support levels? In this video, we discuss this idea, and the reasons why it could happen. Sometimes, #Bitcoin rallies do not lead to sustained #ALT rallies, but just set them up to get crushed when the #BTC rally is over.
Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE:
Into The Cryptoverse Newsletter:
Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.
Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE:
⚠️Note: beware of fake Ben scamBots.
• Only scammers post an Email or Ph#.
• Report all Email, Tgram & Ph# scams.
Thanks for the effort you put on this! I really learn a lot from you!! 🔥🤟🏽
i think this is the camel that broke the straws back.
I know your altcoin reckoning idea is not popular but honestly you could be right. Thanks for the heads up 🤘
Ben is my favorite Bitcoin fanatic. Does that make me one too? Who cares what others think. Important is that you stay true to your beliefs and values.
Why have you never covered Monero? I've watched your videos over the years, and you almost never talk about XMR
“Say my name”
Alts: “we don’t know who you are”
“I’m the man who rekts alts”
Alts: “… you’re the king, bitcoin”
Bitcoin: “you’re goddam right”
Can Bitcoin just kill the s coin market already?
With the BTC dominance increasing should you be DCAing into alts when they go down, or bitcoin whilst it’s price increasing? Or the best of both?? Thanks
Thank you for the great knowledge that you are sharing to us Ben, the universe will bless you more.
Great video Ben. This is real talk right here. Really helps new ppl to this space understand difference between BTC value and USD value. This is arguably the most important notion in this space.
Tight tight tight!
Is this a Heisenberg reference, Ben???
hey Ben what other coins are you looking at? you talked about eth making a 5000% increase do you have any other gems?appreciate the content !
Altcoins aren't repeating the last cycle. Gensler and the SEC are cracking down this time.
Great content, Brilliant as always Ben! Thank you Ben
Thanks again Ben. I converted all my altcoins to Bitcoin since last year and I will never look back again.
Amazing video. Thank you.
Excellent review Ben, Thanks.
1- When you talked about the Total market cap excluded BTC and ETH not yet breaking out, you were on the log scale. Whereas on the linear scale, the breakout already happened. Why do you trust more the log scale than the linear scale for breakouts and charts interpretation ?
2- Which Intothecryptoverse subscription level do you recommend for a "trader" that only does a weekly review and has no time resources to digest all your content on a daily basis ?
Too long videos
If you are in Bitcoin and believe in Bitcoin, the dominance of btc is the most important thing, you have to understand that in this new market, the dollar does not matter, no fiat here EVERYTHING is measured in Bitcoin in satoshi BITCOIN IS KING 👑 and is the new standard
Love your work. Am wondering if this is kinda bullish price structure in BTC at these low levels with CB's soon to pump liquidity again soon. But it'll only continue if narrative plays out meaningfully.
Ok.. to be clear.. what is the point of this? That some alts do not move as much as BTC? That is pretty common knowledge. Good alts will provide you with bigger gains when they rally.
Hi Ben. I don't know how often you check these comments, but I think the main reason why BTC is beating the alts (including Ethereum) at this time is because of the cloud of uncertainty of whether the alts are securities or commodities. According the Gary Gensler BTC is THE ONLY crypto that's a commodity, so it's seen as the less riskier crytpo bet at this time. Unless this cloud of uncertainty is removed from the other alts (including Ethereum), then IMHO we can expect to see BTC dominance increase.
Why do you assume a recession in US could send bitcoin into new lows?
Ben-deflationary recession? 😅 scary but I want that haha is that bad (rhetorical).
As you study dominance do you consider tax categorization? It’s long term after holding for a year. Do you consider that?
Im betting on Litecoin being the silver to Bitcoins gold.
What kind of settings do you have on trading view, is impossible for me to replicate the white support trend line that you have in TOTAL 3. When I put the trendline connecting the 3 picks, it shows that the lower side of price action is already cut. In other words the support trendline has already been broken to the upside. I have the same issue on btc. The support trendline has already been broken long time ago. Anyone with the same results?
Hey Ben. Do you plan to do an update on the bullmarket support band anytime soon? Do you think it made a succesful test of it?
I'm taking a hot bath 🛀 but I finish with a cold shower 🚿
Ben, have you ever considered doing this analysis to altcoins that are accrueing stake rewards and checking how they are holding their value to btc with this in mind?
Most insightful crypto channel on yt
Bitcoin, not cash, is king
Amazing content!! 👏 ❤
Great video… I appreciate you hammering home the secret of the cryptoverse… very insightful
I stopped buying BTC above 23k hopefully that’s a good move 🙈
People are rushing to the safety of BTC from the alts because of the bank failures.
Lol Ben said doge coin
Ben, unbelievable content! Just when I thought your videos couldn't get any better, along comes this one. I've been trying to slowly put it all together, and this video confirmed I'm getting it!!
Dear Ben, could you do alts/USD and what that could look like through 2023? I think most people interested in alts, would love to know what could happen in USD value.
It took me a while to understand the Bitcoin dominance and why it's important. It's about value/wealth preservation. Unless you are timing bottoms and selling your entire alt positions into the rallies during the "alt reckoning," your money is better put into BTC. BTC during this phase wins in a DCA strategy and, in some cases, offers better rallies than alts. The difference is, on the pullbacks, it generally doesn't go down anywhere near as much. Hence, the preservation of your value. That's just looking at it from a USD perspective.