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The Biggest Housing Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming

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Let’s talk about declining home sales, and what this means for the 2022 Housing Market – Enjoy! Trade Bitcoin, Doge, and other crypto with low fees on FTX. Use my referral code GRAHAM and get up to $100 FOR FREE: https://ftx.us/partners/graham – Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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Every month, the National Association Of Realtors publishes their data on the latest market updates, home pricing, and mortgage trends, to give their insights as to the direction of our economy:

Most recently, mortgage Demand Plummets 22%, new applications for a mortgage fell 19% lower than the same week in 2021, and refinance saw an 80% drop year over year…but, the most surprising is that: Home Prices are now 13.4% HIGHER than they were, one year ago.

Even though more inventory IS being listed, the record low pace of “days on the market” implies that, homes priced RIGHT are selling quickly – and, homes priced TOO HIGH are simply deterring prospective buyers.

The blog, CalculatedRisk, points out that – in terms of what could happen in the future, look no further than 1978: We’ve seen a similar uptick in year-over-year mortgage increases…with rates rising by more than 50% – and, even though mortgage rates are lower today than in the past…there are some striking similarities.

As Bill points out, from 1978 to 1982…NOMINAL HOME PRICES CONTINUED GOING HIGHER…but, REAL RETURNS – when accounting for inflation – FELL by 11% over three years…meaning, home prices went UP in terms of DOLLARS…but, because of inflation…the NET VALUE declined…even though people’s net worths were going up.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

The thing is, since homeowners are able to lock low interest, fixed rate loans…home values tend to remain STICKY, in the sense that, people who aren’t FORCED to sell – won’t sell. That’s why, we could very well have prices continuing to go UP…even though, REAL VALUES might decline.

So, OVERALL…these reports are telling us that – higher prices ARE discouraging buyers from making an offer…BUT, there’s still enough demand to keep the market relatively stable.

In my own, very unprofessional opinion…I would NOT be surprised if NOMINAL VALUES GO UP…while REAL VALUES stay flat, or even see a slight drop…so, that means: if you’re in the market for a home…simply buy what you can comfortably afford and plan to keep for the next 7-10 years…but, what do I know…I’m just a talking head on YouTube.

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36 Comments

  1. Would've like the title to be more accurate but great content and really appreciate the proper research if it is true that the sources mentioned by others weren't accurate!

  2. I will forever be indebted to you you’ve changed my whole life I’ll continue to preach about your name for the world to hear you’ve saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment thanks so much Mrs. Elizabeth Graham

  3. I don’t even be watching your videos anymore because Ik it’s the total opposite of the title of the video smh

  4. Disliked the video just because the click baiting is getting out of hand. Your actual content never matches the title and thumbnail and it’s annoying as hell. You’re very good at explaining, you don’t need all these clickbait’s

  5. And what else should you have been expecting since the bubbles of 2000 and 2008 never real got cleared out?

  6. This guy moves his hands so much when he talks that it’s actually a bit distracting.

  7. The video title is always slightly off from the actual content on this channel. It makes this channel almost unusable unfortunately.

  8. According to your logic, inflation will continue, house prices will continue to rise, interest rates will continue to increase, investors will keep buying and rent will keep rising because you know….everyone can just keep affording everything lol.

  9. So are all of your videos titled with lame click bait titles…..why? That is a really odd and sad way to market yourself, especially when you actually have something to say that is worth hearing. WTF man.

  10. One of the worst videos and least knowledgable person compiling a bunch of news with a click bait title.

  11. Have you seriously never heard of these financial groups that are buying up houses left and right? Only so they can turn around and rent them out.

  12. Price drop after price drops….. Things are in a sustained down turn now….. Still the range of price drops is 10-15 % max …. Once the school year starts all the active listings will just languish on the market.

    Increasing foreclosures….new construction finally getting around the supply chain issues…..and sale of vacation/air b&b properties……By year end we will be in full blown crisis…. 😈😈

  13. It's never crashing. Prices will continue to go up and push the middle class to rent while Blackrock buys everything. You will have to rent at insane prices and food will cost more. All your money will be spent on food and shelter

  14. Nice research debunking the foreclosure numbers! I also like that you type out your video thoughts. Thanks, Graham! And to anyone reading this, join the NCK Empowerment program and gain up to $ 2000 for yourself.

  15. when huge gains are made on super high household debt, low paying jobs, printed money, False valuations, world events like Ukraine and Covid, a big recession is inevitable

  16. You didn’t mention a few key components of now compared to the early 80’s. What was wage growth, people’s savings, and people’s debt. Real estate can be a good hedge against inflation when wage growth is parallel. 2022 has so many unique factors that I don’t believe our economic state can be compared to any other time. I feel we are in uncharted territory.

  17. Thanks for the video Graham! FYI if you invest $100 and get a 20% annual return with inflation at 21%, your real terms return isn't -1%. It's -21% on $120 which is $25.2. To calculate your return against your original investment you have to subtract this value from 120, then you get how much your money is worth now: $94.8. Now you can get the final result: 100 – 94.8 which is $5.2 and -5.2% against your original investment. Maybe good education does teach us a thing or two 😆

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